After a sluggish start to 2025, Canada’s housing narrative split along price tiers and regions. Montreal and Calgary pressed ahead on the strength of more attainable price points, while Toronto and Vancouver contended with buyer caution despite steadier mortgage rates. Against that backdrop, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) posted its strongest July sales since 2021—and its ultra-luxury tier ($10M+) roared back with a 200% jump in first-half transactions.
The national luxury picture in H1 2025
Sotheby’s International Realty Canada reports that early-year consumer confidence hit record lows amid Canada-U.S. trade tensions, cooling activity through spring. Even as policy rates held and mortgage costs steadied, $1M-plus price points kept many Toronto and Vancouver buyers on the sidelines. Meanwhile, benchmark prices near the mid-$500Ks in Montreal (CMA) and Calgary supported move-up demand and sales momentum.
- Montreal: $1M-plus sales rose 26% YoY; $4M-plus up 22%—firm seller’s-market conditions with robust price gains.
- Calgary: $1M-plus sales edged up 3% YoY; 10 sales above $4M vs 7 last year (+43%).
- Vancouver: $4M-plus sales fell 51% YoY; only 2 MLS® sales above $10M vs 7 in H1 2024. $1M-plus sales were down 26%.
GTA: best July in four years, prices still softer YoY
TRREB recorded 6,100 sales in July 2025, up 10.9% year-over-year—the best July since 2021. New listings rose 5.7% to 17,613, pointing to a modest market tightening as sales grew faster than supply. The average selling price came in at $1,051,719 (-5.5% YoY), and the MLS® HPI
Composite fell 5.4% YoY; on a seasonally adjusted basis, prices were flat versus June.
Why this matters: improved affordability from lower prices and borrowing costs is beginning to translate into transactions, but further rate relief would likely unlock more demand, according to TRREB commentary.
Ultra-luxury ($10M+) leads Toronto’s high-end story
Even as overall GTA luxury sales over $1M and $4M trended lower in the first half, the $10M-plus bracket broke away from the pack: 12 MLS® sales from January–June 2025 vs 4 a year earlier (+200%). Brokerages also reported notable gains in off-market deals within this elite tier. Activity clustered in marquee neighbourhoods such as The Bridle Path, Rosedale, and Yorkville.
What’s driving it: Ultra-high-net-worth buyers tend to be less rate-sensitive and often view quieter markets as entry points for trophy assets—particularly when competition thins in the $4M–$10M segment.
What buyers and sellers should watch next
- Rates & sentiment: The Bank of Canada’s rate holds through mid-year helped steady borrowing costs; continued easing would likely firm sales further, particularly below the ultra-luxury tier.
- Segment divergence: Expect continued outperformance at the very top end, while the $1M–$4M bands recover more gradually as affordability improves and confidence rebuilds.
- Regional contrasts: Montreal and Calgary’s comparatively lower benchmarks continue to support move-up activity. Vancouver’s high-end slowdown warrants close watching for spillover effects in the fall market.
Bottom line for the GTA
Mid-2025 marked a turning point: sales momentum returned in July even as prices remained below last year’s levels, creating opportunities for value-oriented buyers. At the same time, Toronto’s ultra-luxury bracket clearly re-established itself as a market of its own—with deeper liquidity and increased private transactions—setting the tone for the city’s top-tier real estate heading into the fall.
Sources: Sotheby’s International Realty Canada, TRREB, and LuxuryHomes.com summaries of TRREB/Sotheby’s data. Market figures reflect the timeframes noted in each source and may vary by sub-market and property type.