The Canadian real estate market kicked off 2025 on solid footing, only to be disrupted by escalating Canada–U.S. trade disputes, newly imposed tariffs, and increasing economic instability. These developments triggered a slowdown in overall residential transactions. However, certain segments of the country’s luxury housing market bucked the trend, showcasing resilience amid headwinds. While the broader market faces a season of unpredictability, select luxury pockets continue to show strength, hinting at their potential to outperform in a challenging landscape.
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
Montreal
Montreal defied the national slowdown, posting consistent sales across housing categories in early 2025. Easing interest rates helped unlock delayed buyer demand, and the city’s more attainable housing prices allowed many to upgrade into the luxury segment. From January 1 to March 31, sales of properties priced over $1 million rose by 11% compared to the same period last year, despite a brief mid-quarter dip. Sales of homes priced above $4 million held steady year-over-year, with eight properties changing hands. Montreal leaned toward a seller’s market through the first quarter.
Toronto
Luxury real estate in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) showcased exceptional resilience, particularly at the ultra-high end. Despite annual drops in $1 million and $4 million+ transactions (down 29% and 15%, respectively), the $10 million+ segment flourished. In Q1 2025, five properties over $10 million were sold on MLS—an impressive leap from zero such transactions in Q1 2024. Off-market and private transactions in this tier also grew, reflecting the strategic adaptability of ultra-high-net-worth buyers in Canada’s most populous region.
Calgary
Calgary’s high-end market continued its upward trajectory into 2025, bolstered by strong population growth and economic momentum from the previous year. Alberta led the country in net population gain, adding 28,496 new residents in Q1 alone. That influx sustained buyer activity in Calgary, where luxury property sales over $1 million edged up by 2% year-over-year. While only one home sold above $4 million—down from two in Q1 2024—the overall outlook remained positive, positioning Calgary as one of the few luxury markets with a growth narrative this spring.
Vancouver
After a promising start, Vancouver’s luxury real estate market cooled as tariff uncertainty and a sluggish local economy took a toll on consumer confidence. Buyers took a cautious stance, and inventory levels climbed, shifting conditions in favor of purchasers. High-end transactions reflected this trend: residential sales over $1 million dropped 30% year-over-year, while the $4 million+ category saw a 48% decline. No $10 million+ sales were recorded on MLS, matching last year’s Q1 performance. Among Canada’s largest cities, Vancouver saw the steepest annual decline in luxury market activity.
*Disclaimer
The information contained in this report references market data from MLS boards across Canada. Sotheby’s International Realty Canada cautions that MLS market data can be useful in establishing trends over time but does not indicate actual prices in widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differentials within local markets. This report is published for general information only and not to be relied upon in any way. Although high standards have been used in the preparation of the information and analysis presented in this report, no responsibility or liability whatsoever can be accepted by Sotheby’s International Realty Canada or Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates for any loss or damage resulting from any use of, reliance on, or reference to the contents of this document.